Projections are key to formulate the expectations regarding future cash flows to have the liquidity at the desired level. Unfortunatly there is no way to predict the future reliably.

However the Apliqo LP PM solution offers the ability to model best-practices for projection based on the solid data foundation. The solution supports the standard “Takahashi - Alexander Model”.

How it works

The Apliqo LP PM projection model projects the quarterly values for

NAV
Distributions
Contributions

The key projections are based on statistical models for

Projected total NAV net gain
Projected quarterly NAV net gain
Projected quarterly cash-flows projections for distributions commitments

The projection model is aware of the fund strategies

Buyout
Growth
Venture Capital

The statistical model is based on fund data with at least 10 years of track-record

Apliqo LP PM supports custom statistical models. User generated models can be loaded into the system.

more details to the Apliqo LP PM cash flow projection model can be requested at
info (at) apliqo.com

Disclaimer:

Limited Reliability of Algorithms: The Software utilizes various algorithms to generate projections. While Apliqo have made reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of these algorithms, it is important to note that they may not always produce entirely reliable results. Factors such as input data quality, system configurations, and other variables can impact the accuracy of the projections. Therefore, Apliqo cannot guarantee the absolute reliability or correctness of the algorithmic outputs.
No Liability for Inaccurate Results: Apliqo and any other associated parties shall not be held liable for any inaccuracies, errors, or damages resulting from the use of the Software or its projections. This includes, but is not limited to, financial losses, disruptions in business operations, or any other direct or indirect damages arising from reliance on the projected data.
User's Responsibility for Validation: It is the user's responsibility to independently validate the projections generated by the Software and exercise caution when relying on them. The user should exercise their professional judgment and consider multiple sources of information before making any decisions based on the projections obtained through the Software.

Where to maintain the projections?

The projections are maintained in the Data Management - Fund setup - Fund projection assumptions

Where can it be found in the solution

What is the basis of the projection assumptions?

The statistical projection assumptions for the Apliqo LP PM Projection Model are based on cashflows and valuations from over 1’200 funds, with a minimum of 10 years of history.

Buyout funds: 816
Growth funds: 121
VC funds: 324

With the vintages between 1985 and 2014 the value development the model covers different economical cycles.

Dotcom-Bubble (1995-2000)
Y2K recession (2000-2002)
Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009)
COVID 19 (2020-2021)

To exclude the younger funds does minimize the risk to base the projection on inflated unrealized inflated valuations during a period of very low interest rates.

Table: breakdown of Funds per vintage and strategy

	BO	Growth	VC
Total	816	121	324
1985	2
1986	1		2
1987	4		2
1988	5		1
1989			1
1990	1		4
1991	3		1
1992	5	2	5
1993	7	1	5
1994	16		6
1995	13		7
1996	17	2	8
1997	20		12
1998	36	1	16
1999	31	3	19
2000	33	5	37
2001	21	3	23
2002	22	2	15
2003	28		11
2004	30	3	10
2005	58	6	14
2006	66	10	20
2007	67	13	26
2008	62	9	19
2009	27	6	7
2010	36	7	10
2011	43	14	13
2012	45	11	10
2013	60	9	11
2014	57	14	9

Why are projections beyond 6 years tend to have strong dips?

The Apliqo projection model assumes a lifecycle of up to 60 quarters, 15 years. For funds older then 60 quarters only the acutal cumulative distributions are taken into consideration. Younger funds include the projected cumulative distributions up to the 60th quarter. If a fund reaches the age of 60 quarters. the cumulative distributions will no longer be taken into consideration.

AIS Documentation