Projections are key to formulate the expectations regarding future cash flows to have the liquidity at the desired level.
Unfortunatly there is no way to predict the future reliably.
However the Apliqo LP PM solution offers the ability to model best-practices for projection based on the solid data foundation. The solution supports the standard “Takahashi - Alexander Model”.
How it works
The Apliqo LP PM projection model estimates
• the cumulative future distributions,
•The Quarterly NAV net gains and the
•Quarterly cash-flows: distributions and capital calls.
the model leverages the Takahashi-Alexander Model (a.k.a. Yale Model) and uses fund data with a minimum of 10 years. The model takes the fund strategy (e.g. Buyout) into consideration
For each investment a assumed projection curve is applied
Distributions
Drawdowns, Capital Calls, Contributions
Net Gain curve Scenario
these generic curves can be over-written with estimates, if required.
The model
The projection model takes into consideration the available reported data (dark green) and the estimations by the LP (light green). The model applies Apliqo proprietary projections methods (yellow arrows) to calculate the expected NAV uplift and the quarterly distributions per fund.
Legend
more details to the Apliqo LP PM cash flow projection model can be requested at info (at) apliqo.com
Where to maintain the projections?
The projections are maintained in the Data Management - Fund setup - Fund projection assumptions
How are the projections calculated?
The model estimates for all Asset Classes and Strategies different contribution and distributions per quarter, based on the historic performance of the these asset groups.
Available Strategies are: Venture (VC), Buyout (BO), Growth (GROWTH), Infrastructure (INFRA), Real Estate (RE), Private Debt (PD)
The Portfolio manager applies for each fund a percentile estimate on how the fund will call capital and pay distributions.
Apliqo maintains a forecast model for these asset classes and strategies per vintage year. As an example a contribution curve for a Buyout fund rated as 75 % percentile could look like this.
Disclaimer:
Limited Reliability of Algorithms: The Software utilizes various algorithms to generate projections. While Apliqo have made reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of these algorithms, it is important to note that they may not always produce entirely reliable results. Factors such as input data quality, system configurations, and other variables can impact the accuracy of the projections. Therefore, Apliqo cannot guarantee the absolute reliability or correctness of the algorithmic outputs.
No Liability for Inaccurate Results: Apliqo and any other associated parties shall not be held liable for any inaccuracies, errors, or damages resulting from the use of the Software or its projections. This includes, but is not limited to, financial losses, disruptions in business operations, or any other direct or indirect damages arising from reliance on the projected data.
User's Responsibility for Validation: It is the user's responsibility to independently validate the projections generated by the Software and exercise caution when relying on them. The user should exercise their professional judgment and consider multiple sources of information before making any decisions based on the projections obtained through the Software.
Where can it be found in the solution
Report: Value development
this shows the expectation on the value development of the Portfolio
Options to use the report
Switch from Aggregate Portfolio to individual funds
Change projection years 9
good to know:
as most funds in the portfolio will be closed by the year 9 the remaining NAV is nearly 0 and the net gain is stagnating
Cashflow projections: Portfolio projections
To provide treasury the expected cashflows by investment vehicle this report can be exported to excel
